Vi allego un articolo apparso oggi sul WSJ, in cui si fa riferimento alla situazione politico-economica in Italia. Senza tanti schiamazzi e proclami, mi sembra un'analisi abbastanza veritieria della situazione.
Italy is without a government. For a country with a multi-decade record of unstable coalitions, that is nothing more than a disappointment. But it comes at a time when growth is stalling, consumer confidence has plummeted, industrial production has fallen for three months in a row: an economy close to recession that must be revived despite a novel handicap – a hard currency. It won’t be easy for a weakly-governed country to rise to the challenge.
The unhappy truth is that Italy has not flourished since joining the euro at its launch in 1999. From entry until 2006, its annual growth rate of 1.3% has lagged the eurozone’s 2.1%. The gap seems to be widening. Eurozone industrial production rose by 2.7% in November on a year earlier; in Italy it fell by 2.4%. Export growth has tumbled, particularly to the US and Japan, where the strong euro has made Italian goods expensive.
But the root of Italy's economic problem is not the euro. Italy’s soaring labour costs have driven down its price competitiveness by 30% in the past five years, according to the Bank of Italy. The central bank says the gap has worsened since the end of the summer.
Romano Prodi, the prime minister ousted last week, proposed labour market and pension reforms. But the changes in voting rules introduced by Silvio Berlusconi, the former and possible future prime minister, caused a proliferation of small parties. It was impossible for Prodi to govern. The long-term failure of government is weighing more and more heavily on an economy that is in many regards powerful.
For Italy has great manufacturers. From handbags to cars, it offers some of the raciest products around. But, saddled as it is with a strong currency — and a government debt that is larger than GDP — Italy seems likely to continue to record the weakest growth of the major European economies unless it can reinvent itself.
That sounds so difficult that escape from the eurozone may be tempting. But to leave the euro would be a huge and dangerous leap. Italy's economic disease is serious and deeply ingrained, but not utterly beyond human remedy. The euro could be beneficial: a goad to stir the country’s leaders toward the hard but ultimately rewarding work of political reform.
Italy is without a government. For a country with a multi-decade record of unstable coalitions, that is nothing more than a disappointment. But it comes at a time when growth is stalling, consumer confidence has plummeted, industrial production has fallen for three months in a row: an economy close to recession that must be revived despite a novel handicap – a hard currency. It won’t be easy for a weakly-governed country to rise to the challenge.
The unhappy truth is that Italy has not flourished since joining the euro at its launch in 1999. From entry until 2006, its annual growth rate of 1.3% has lagged the eurozone’s 2.1%. The gap seems to be widening. Eurozone industrial production rose by 2.7% in November on a year earlier; in Italy it fell by 2.4%. Export growth has tumbled, particularly to the US and Japan, where the strong euro has made Italian goods expensive.
But the root of Italy's economic problem is not the euro. Italy’s soaring labour costs have driven down its price competitiveness by 30% in the past five years, according to the Bank of Italy. The central bank says the gap has worsened since the end of the summer.
Romano Prodi, the prime minister ousted last week, proposed labour market and pension reforms. But the changes in voting rules introduced by Silvio Berlusconi, the former and possible future prime minister, caused a proliferation of small parties. It was impossible for Prodi to govern. The long-term failure of government is weighing more and more heavily on an economy that is in many regards powerful.
For Italy has great manufacturers. From handbags to cars, it offers some of the raciest products around. But, saddled as it is with a strong currency — and a government debt that is larger than GDP — Italy seems likely to continue to record the weakest growth of the major European economies unless it can reinvent itself.
That sounds so difficult that escape from the eurozone may be tempting. But to leave the euro would be a huge and dangerous leap. Italy's economic disease is serious and deeply ingrained, but not utterly beyond human remedy. The euro could be beneficial: a goad to stir the country’s leaders toward the hard but ultimately rewarding work of political reform.
Previsioni Meteo NYC
